How the Middle East conflict is disrupting global energy - and what your business should do now
The International Energy Agency's Executive Director Fatih Birol has called it “the greatest threat to global energy security in history.” Since strikes on Iran began in late February 2026, commercial tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz - the narrow chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world's oil and LNG trade normally passes - has been reduced to a trickle. Brent crude, which averaged $68 a barrel through 2025, has surged past $120 at the height of the crisis.
The energy disruption is the most visible consequence. But the cascading effects - on petrochemicals, fertilisers, industrial gases, freight costs, and inflation - are radiating well beyond the fuel pump. Smart businesses are already planning.
Step 1: Consider the scenarios
Best case - regional détente: the recently negotiated ceasefire holds, tanker traffic resumes within weeks, and oil prices retrace toward pre-conflict levels.
Worst case - prolonged or escalating conflict: the ceasefire fails, attacks on energy infrastructure multiply, the conflict widens, and oil breaches $150.
Most likely case - a grinding middle ground: partial tanker flows resume intermittently but unpredictably, and prices remain elevated and volatile for a prolonged period. Plan for this scenario, but bear in mind the others remain possible.
Step 2: Assess your risk
This situation presents two interrelated risk dimensions - supply and price - and every critical business input needs to be assessed against both, using a traffic-light framework (green: within tolerance, amber: emerging risk, red: critical situation), reassessed frequently.
Step 3: Plan your contingencies
Once you have assessed exposure, develop structured contingency options using the PACE Options Framework: Primary (preferred method under current conditions), Alternate (backup when Primary is constrained), Contingent (third-tier fallback), and Emergency (last resort, but it keeps you running). Develop these options now, before you need them.
Add a step 4 - explore opportunities
As former White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel put it: “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste.” A broken supply relationship creates space for a better one. A forced operational change accelerates a restructure that was long overdue.
From planning to execution
Learn from the recent past: the businesses that came through COVID and the Ukraine energy crisis best moved early, communicated clearly, and made hard calls before they became unavoidable. Stand up a crisis rhythm, know when to adjust, and stay close to government. Assess the risk, plan the contingencies, pursue the opportunities, and execute with discipline.